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Artificial intelligence buildout faces a revenue test

Never has so much cash flowed into a new technology as is pouring into artificial intelligence, eclipsing sums spent on railways or the internet, Reuters reported from London in a story The Manila Times published on 5 October 2026.

Cumulative spending globally on data centers alone could top $30 trillion by 2050, according to a PwC projection cited in the report, almost matching the value of outstanding US Treasuries. PwC said the total “dwarfs” railroad and dotcom spending even after inflation adjustment.

Artificial intelligence revenue still has to catch up

Anthropic plans to spend $518 billion in coming years, according to an IPO prospectus seen by Reuters, more than 100 times its 2025 revenue. The report said its backers argue the technology will be more transformational than steam engines. Economists said the projections assume broad productivity gains and future profits with little evidence so far that they will arrive.

JP Morgan wrote in August that broad-based US productivity gains “remain elusive”. A Bain & Company study said gains from existing markets would not justify current outlays and that “entirely new markets must emerge to close the funding gap”. Bain said US hyperscalers, naming Google, Amazon and Microsoft, and others in the race needed more than $4.2 trillion of new revenue in the next five years. The study, published last month, asked whether applications would “arrive in time to pay for it”.

JP Morgan estimated that justifying Nvidia’s valuation would require US productivity gains of 3 percent to 5 percent a year for the next 10 years, against a Congressional Budget Office baseline of 1.75 percent. Columbia Business School economist Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh estimated US investment of about $9 trillion from 2025 to 2032, equal to 3.2 percent of GDP a year, and about $3.55 trillion in annual sector revenue by 2032 for a 10 percent return. He wrote that leveraged funding means “a relatively modest deterioration in demand, delays, or asset values can therefore produce much larger losses”.

Source: The Manila Times (Reuters)

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