India’s 2026 southwest monsoon ended on 30 September with rainfall about 13% below normal, the fourth-lowest season since 2001 and the weakest since 2015, the India Meteorological Department confirmed. The country received 759.4 mm of rain, or roughly 87% of the long-period average of about 868 mm.
Uneven rains, drought declarations
IMD data point to El Niño-linked dryness and highly uneven distribution across the four monsoon months. Southern and eastern regions recorded some of the sharpest shortfalls, while a few western and central pockets fared better. Several states have already declared drought in affected districts, raising concern for kharif yields of paddy, pulses and oilseeds as harvest season begins.
October is forecast to open with rain over parts of southern India and a largely dry spell across the north as withdrawal continues. Soil moisture maps will matter for rabi sowing decisions in the weeks ahead. The deficit lands as traders watch festival-season food prices; see our earlier note on the edible-oil duty cut ahead of the festive period. Farmer groups have asked for timely input subsidies and power for remaining irrigation cycles.
Prices, rural demand and policy
A weak monsoon can lift vegetable and pulse inflation and weigh on rural demand just as equity markets remain sensitive to oil and food costs. Reservoir storage and any late showers in early October will decide how much of the kharif shortfall can still be eased before winter crops go into the ground.
Looking ahead
IMD will keep issuing withdrawal updates through early October. State agriculture departments are expected to map sown area and relief needs district by district. Season figures are detailed by India Today.
Today’s News 30 Sep 2026 · 10 stories
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