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IMD says monsoon withdrawal will push further across north and central India

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The India Meteorological Department expects the monsoon withdrawal to advance on Saturday, 3 October, from more of north and central India, even as rain and thunderstorms continue over parts of the south and the northeast. The forecast was issued on 2 October.

IMD says monsoon withdrawal will push further across north and central India
Monsoon rain in Kerala, where fairly widespread rain is still forecast. Photo: CC BY-SA 4.0.

Where monsoon withdrawal is likely in the next 24 hours

Conditions are favourable for the southwest monsoon to pull back from the remaining parts of Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan, from most of Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh, and from all of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand. That is the large-scale change as October begins. Much of the country outside the south, the northeast and some eastern districts has already been dry.

The first heavy rain of a monsoon spell
A monsoon downpour. The IMD still expects heavy rain in parts of the northeast. Photo: CC BY-SA 3.0.

The monsoon withdrawal does not mean a dry map. For 3 October the IMD said isolated heavy rain is very likely over Arunachal Pradesh. Thunderstorms with lightning are forecast over Assam and Meghalaya, and over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura. Similar storms, with winds of 30 to 40 kmph, are possible in isolated places over Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and Mahe, Lakshadweep, and Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim.

Traffic moving through monsoon rain
Traffic in monsoon rain. Thunderstorms are forecast over the northeast and parts of the south. Photo: CC BY 2.0.

Who still has a wet Saturday

Rainfall is expected to be fairly widespread over Kerala and Lakshadweep, and fairly widespread along coastal Karnataka. Circulations over the northeast, the Arabian Sea and the southern peninsula are still feeding those belts. Farmers in the northwest, watching tanks and late sowing, are on the other side of the same bulletin: a retreating monsoon, not a new spell.

Satellite rainfall map over India during the southwest monsoon
A NASA rainfall map of a southwest monsoon spell over India. Photo: NASA, public domain.

The department’s distinction is the one that matters for the weekend. North and central India are in the withdrawal phase. The south and the northeast are not done with rain.

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