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El Nino 2026: NASA satellites track what may be the strongest El Nino since 1950

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NASA satellites are tracking El Nino 2026 as it builds across the Pacific, and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) says there is an 83 per cent chance that the strongest El Nino since 1950 is now under way. NASA published new satellite maps of the event on 15 October 2026.

El Nino 2026: NASA satellite data maps comparing the Pacific Ocean in 2025 and 2026
NASA satellite data maps comparing the Pacific Ocean in 2025 and 2026 Photo: NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio (public domain).

How satellites spotted El Nino 2026

El Nino is a natural climate pattern that comes roughly every two to seven years, with warmer than normal water in parts of the equatorial Pacific. One of the first clues appeared in January 2026, when a swell of warm water called a Kelvin wave was seen near Micronesia, NASA said. By early April these waves had reached the eastern Pacific. Warm water expands, and sea levels rose by as much as 30 to 40 centimetres in some areas, while levels near Indonesia and northern Australia fell by 15 to 20 centimetres. The Sentinel-6 satellites measured these changes; they measure water height for the entire ocean every 10 days, continuing a satellite record that began in 1993. NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center gave the 83 per cent figure in its October update.

Key Facts

  • Chance of strongest El Nino since 1950: 83% (NOAA)
  • Eastern Pacific sea temperature: about 1.7°C above average
  • Sea level rise in parts of Pacific: up to 30-40 cm
  • First signal: Kelvin wave near Micronesia, Jan 2026
  • NASA maps published: 15 Oct 2026

“Kelvin waves are like the heartbeat of El Nino.”

— Josh Willis, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory

Sea surface temperature and a bluer ocean

Sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific are already about 1.7 degrees Celsius above the long-term average and could rise a little more in the coming months, said Josh Willis of NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory. ‘Kelvin waves are like the heartbeat of El Nino,’ he said. NASA’s PACE satellite has found that equatorial Pacific waters have turned measurably bluer. This is because weaker trade winds bring up fewer nutrients from deep water, so the tiny plants called phytoplankton decline. This is the first El Nino since PACE launched in 2024. NASA said the drop in phytoplankton can force other sea life to move to new feeding grounds.

What the NOAA forecast means

NOAA’s October discussion says the event could be the strongest in its records since 1950 during October to December, and forecasts a strong to very strong El Nino through January to March 2027. El Nino shifts trade winds, moves ocean heat and changes rain patterns around the world, and people from farmers to firefighters are already feeling its effects, NASA said. ‘El Nino touches almost all of us in some way every time it occurs,’ Willis said. NASA did not give a forecast for India’s weather in this report, so TrendDesh is not adding one. The India Meteorological Department issues India’s official forecasts. The data in this story comes from NASA and its partner satellite missions.

Why It Matters: A record El Nino changes rain and heat patterns across the world, which can affect crops, water supply and prices far from the Pacific.

Also on TrendDesh: Sentinel-3C sends first images of Italy and Greenland two weeks after launch · Disaster housing losses hit $228 billion a year, UN says on Disaster Risk Reduction Day

Source: NASA Science · NOAA Climate Prediction Center

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